Tuesday, October 28, 2008

Futures Continue To Be a Fool's Game...

The futures were pointing to a 400 point jump on the open, but stocks have settled down since then (currently up 120). Europe and Asia swung up 5-10% on the strength of a short-selling ban in Japan and a German short-squeeze on Volkswagon (the consensus is VW is in trouble but because so many people are short, any rush to cover is causing massive swings in the stock).

US Consumer confidence plummets...

"A key measure of consumer confidence fell to an all-time low in October as the financial crisis weighed on American household budgets.

The Conference Board, a New York-based business research group, said Tuesday that its Consumer Confidence Index plummeted to 38 in October from an upwardly revised reading of 61.4 in September.

Last month's decline brings the index to its lowest level since its inception in 1967.
Economists were expecting the index to have declined to 52, according to a survey by Briefing.com."

I tell people not to focus on the little swings in monthly data but look out for data that is an outlier. This report is clearly an outlier. Consumer confidence plummeted nearly 30%, that's a real problem.

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