Friday, January 09, 2009

Non-Farm Payroll - Down 524k.... Birth/Death +72 - LOL!

I don't think I've ever seen a consensus number be spot on, but as I've said many times this payroll number is merely an exercise in statistics and is not very representative of the actual job market at any one point in time.

I will join the chorus of other bloggers that will note again that the government projected 72,000 new jobs were magically created by new firms that were formed in December. That's just embarrassing. Who can say with a straight face that in the midst of the worst financial crisis in modern times 300,000 jobs have been created by new small businesses.

There were huge downward revisions in previous months numbers as well, but at the end of the day the market will likely yawn at this data (it should have an upward bias at the open).

Unemployment has crossed 7% and I think it's interesting to note that despite all of the hopes pinned on a new costly stimulus out of Washington, we've lost 1.9 million jobs in the last 4 months. Many of these people do not have skill sets that translate well to building roads or laying bricks.


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