Wednesday, March 25, 2009

Durable goods fools everyone...

Durable goods orders is perhaps the worst data point issued by the government. It is notoriously volatile and subject to substantial revisions. January for example was revised DOWN to -7.3% from an initial number of -5.2%. No one pays attention to the revisions however.

Do you really think there was a 15% swing in durable goods orders in a month? Not likely. Not when companies like United Technologies are cutting 15,000 jobs. The market is still looking for any reason to rally. Durable goods! It's 42 degrees in NYC! Etc, etc.

Enjoy these rallies, but understand that they are built on toothpicks.

1 comment:

Aaran Macsneps said...

One of the best examples of a strong USP is the one that changed the industry and taking a business owner who has a sore challenges to survive in a highly competitive market to stand out above the rest, which is up what others made.

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