Tuesday, September 22, 2009

This is a lot of red for the green shoots crowd...






Basically the red states are contracting and green states would be expanding. North Dakota is ROCKING!! Uh, the rest of us..... not so much.

The monthly Philadelphia Fed Coincident Index survey was released today and data was not very encouraging. I look at coincident and leading indicators for indications of shifts in trends. This report should give all the recovery crowd pause.

"Over the past three months, the indexes increased in six states, decreased in 40, and remained unchanged in four."

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Perhaps equally troubling is the news that mortgage delinquencies seem to be ACCELERATING despite all of the government programs put in place to allow for mortgage modification.

"Among U.S. homeowners with mortgages, a record 7.58 percent were at least 30 days late on payments in August, up from 7.32 percent in July, according to the data obtained exclusively by Reuters.

August marked the fourth consecutive monthly increase in delinquencies, and the report showed an accelerating pace. By comparison, 4.89 percent of mortgages were 30 days past due in August 2008, while in August 2007, the rate was 3.44 percent, Equifax data showed.

The rate of subprime mortgage delinquencies now tops 41 percent, up from about 39 percent in each of the prior five months."

Think about that for a moment. Roughly 1 in every 12 homes with a mortgage is 30 days late on their mortgage payment. If you live a subprime area, 2 out of every 5 homes is behind on their mortgage. Anyone else get the feeling that we're just kicking the can down the road?

Cheers!

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