Friday, November 06, 2009

Jobs report

Unemployment cracks 10% as the White House foreshadowed when they started hinting at a second stimulus last week.

"The unemployment rate rose from 9.8 to 10.2 percent in October, and nonfarmpayroll employment continued to decline (-190,000), the U.S. Bureau of LaborStatistics reported today. The largest job losses over the month were in construction, manufacturing, and retail trade.

Household Survey Data
In October, the number of unemployed persons increased by 558,000 to 15.7million. The unemployment rate rose by 0.4 percentage point to 10.2 percent,the highest rate since April 1983. Since the start of the recession in December 2007, the number of unemployed persons has risen by 8.2 million,and the unemployment rate has grown by 5.3 percentage points."

Other important numbers:

U-6, a measure of unemployed and underemployed, is now at 17.5% nearly one out of every five American workers.

The Birth/Death model ADDED 86,000 jobs in October. This has become beyond comical. The fact that the statisticians at the BLS look at the economy around them and say, "Yeah, we think enough new businesses started up this month to generate 86k jobs this month." Remember, this is net of new businesses that failed in the month. Playing this sort of game makes me question every number that the BLS releases.

The markets are off a little right now, but remember the crazy mindset of the Wall Street trader: Bad news for the economy means the Fed will continue it's easy money policies, which means the dollar should remain weak, which means commodities and stocks should rise.

I know it doesn't seem logical, but that's the thinking right now.

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