Thursday, January 28, 2010

Thursday evening potpourri

S&P sits right on the number - Further evidence that market has become the equivalent of a large Las Vegas sports book. The technicians said this morning that 1085 would be a critical support level for the market. Well, a combination of factors weighed on the market this morning and we cracked that level pretty quickly. However, by the afternoon the mystery bid had returned to the market and given it just enough juice to end the day at....wait for it.... 1084.5
If you've ever done any legal sports gambling you know that the line in Vegas is set to draw in enough public $$ to offset the smart money. I get the sense that the market is moving to the same beat. Moving in remarkably precise steps to ensure sufficient order flow from the armchair quarterback technicians while Silverlady is betting the farm on the other side.
Bernanke reappointed - Frankly, I'm kind of surprised by the vote -- 70-30. I know the Senators were fed the "Don't upset the apple cart" line and that led to the votes falling for Bernanke but his recent testimony convinced me that he's just out in left field. He didn't see the housing crisis that EVERYONE else could see coming from a mile away. That alone is enough to vote against him. There's also some buzz on the intertubes about a possible whistleblower coming forward that has evidence that it was recommended that the Fed let AIG fail, but that Chairman Bernanke may have ignored that suggestion.
However, if this keeps Larry Summers out of the Fed, then it is a good thing :)
Ford - Just a quick note on Ford. Great quarter, but note that much of there profit was due to very low material costs and profits from there financing arm. If spreads tighten Ford could be in trouble again along with the banks.
Mortgage delinquencies - "Fannie Mae reported today that the rate of serious delinquencies - at least 90 days behind - for conventional loans in its single-family guarantee business increased to 5.29% in November, up from 4.98% in October - and up from 2.13% in November 2008."
Does this look like the makings of a healthy housing market?


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