Thursday, April 29, 2010

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So, the Greek's are back in business - until the rug is pulled out from under them - and oil companies are making big bucks again thanks to $85 oil so it's off to the races in the markets :)

I'll just caution that the Eurozone is not out of the woods just yet. Spain seems to have a little problem with the under 25 crowd - "the unemployment rate for those under 25 years in the first quarter of 2010 was 40.93%!!!" What h%#@? It's hard to buy the latest ithingy when 41% of people under 25 are unemployed. Oh and Portugal, the UK and France have people making some substantial bets against them.

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Ban the bailouts...

One the problems that "old-timers' like myself have with analyzing the current economic situation is that we assume a failure to meet your financial obligations leads to default and an eventual workout of your debt. Whether you are a country like Greece, a company like AIG or a homeowner in South Florida, when you can't make your payments you default and move on. However, we've somehow determined that there can never be another default and everyone needs a bailout.

The latest round of bailouts are governments bailing out other governments and some countries like Spain borrowing to bailout their buddies in Greece. Nothing to see here, move along sir.

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Keep in mind that many of the long-term unemployed (those that have seen benefits extended up to 99 weeks) are going to start exhausting their benefits.

"Interviews with state officials found that in New York, 57,000 people have received their last check. In Florida, 130,000 are no longer eligible as are about 30,000 Ohioans."


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FYI - It's totally anecdotal, but the humming Canadian economy is clearly evidenced by the meaningful uptick in ships passing through the Seaway. I don't have any hard data, but I'd guess ship traffic is up substantially - 50%+ from last year at this time.

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I'm doing my part to stimulate the economy by picking up a couple of extra bikes for the kids. Oh, and I needed a cyclocross bike. Oh, and I needed a tandem for rides with the wife. Oh, and the price of that timetrial bike was too good to pass up. I can only keep this going for so long, we're going to need another tax credit or stimulus if I'm going to keep up my impulsive purchases.

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