Friday, June 04, 2010

Jobs Report

Well, today's the day for the craziest release of gov't data in recent memory. Estimates keep climbing -I'd say the whisper number is easily over 700k jobs added and I've seen estimates as high as 900k.

How could that be?

- 500k census workers
- 150-250k for the birth death adjustment (again you can't just add or subtract this number but it does artificially boost the jobs data)
- 50k for temporary help cleaning up the Gulf Spill.
- 50-150k of real jobs added.

So on the surface we could see 950k "jobs added" but remember that almost all of these jobs will vanish by July.

It should be fun dissecting this report.

Look for updates after 8:30am....

The initial number of 430k is way below consensus and the 41k of private jobs is about 100k light. I'll dig through the numbers but on the surface this looks like a huge miss.

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