Friday, July 02, 2010

Monthly jobs report

Estimates are all over the map for this month's report due to a couple of factors:

When are the census jobs unwinding and what will be the plug.... I mean birth/death adjustment be.

The non-census jobs number should be between 100k-150k+ but the headline number will probably be negative. However, estimates have been falling all week and the whisper numbers are very, very low so unless this is a disastrous report expect the market to breathe a sigh of relief and perk up a bit today.

We'll know more at 8:30....

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Update: The headline number was a loss of 125k jobs but 225 of those job losses were due to expiring Census jobs. Private employment was said to have edged up about 83k - almost exactly in line with expectations.

The good:
The total # of private sector jobs added should keep the market satisfied today.

The bad:
Avg workweek FELL by 0.1 hour to 34.1 hours.
The manufacturing workweek for all employees decreased by 0.5 hour to 40.0 hours.
Avg hourly earnings FELL 2 cents, or 0.1 percent, to $22.53 in June.
The Birth/Death adjustment was a goofy +147k jobs - I had estimated 151k in my private model. I should apply for a job at the BLS.

If this were a non-holiday weekend, I'd say people might get concerned by the underlying weakness of the report, but with the rookies running the show today everyone should be ok with the fact that the report wasn't a disaster.

Cheers!

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