Monday, August 09, 2010

Where would NNY fall in this survey?

Gallup put together an interesting survey to determine the states with the highest concentration of government employees. Not surprisingly, DC topped the list with 38% of respondents working for Federal, State or Local governments. Other states in the DC metro area - VA and MD - were near the top of the list, but I think some might find the balance of the survey interesting.

For all of the talk about Reagan Republicans in the South, red states seem to be pretty dependent on Uncle Sam for their economic health. Mississippi, Louisiana, North and South Carolina all cracked the top 10 for the highest percentage of gov't employees (all north of 20%) and a red state WAY, WAY up north - Alaska - had a whopping 31% of respondents say they were employed by the government.

I found it interesting that New York didn't show up on either list, but I think NNY would have probably made the list. Our reliance on jobs related to the prison industry, postal services, Ft. Drum, education, law enforcement, etc., would probably push the % of our population working for the government above 20%. These numbers matter because a large proportion of these employers have substantial pension obligations that will be crushing them soon.

On a related subject, it seems that there is some serious debate finally beginning on the issue of the retirement age in the US. This is about 5 years too late, but I assume that it was a calculated move to wait for the last of the Baby Boomers to clear some magical age. I'd assume that by 2014 we'll have a modified Social Security system that will allow those that are 50 in 2014 to retire under the current rules. Everyone else will see their minimum retirement age jump to 70. Since, Gen X and Y are not a huge voting block it will be easy to punish them for not having enough children to pay for the medicated baby boomers that will live for ever.

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One of the better quotes of the day comes from an analyst in Canada

"The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index — currently at 67.8 in July — is the lowest since November 2009.

What is the average during recessions? 73.8.

What does it average in economic expansions? Try 90.9.

So you tell us where we are in the cycle.

Ditto for the Conference Board consumer confidence survey. It was 50.4 in July — a five month low.

The average during recessions is 70.4, and 102 in expansions. In other words, it is still 20 points below the recession averages.

The National Federation of Independent Business small business optimism sentiment was 89.0 in June — a three month low. The average during recessions is 91.9. The average during expansions is 100.2. Again, you be the judge."

Cheers.

1 comment:

The Hermit said...

Obama said don't call it a depression until sometime in 2020.
And Dems, please dont mention healthcare before the election in Nov. After Nov, we can raise taxes again and take on more debt.
If you want to see NY in a survey, try the states with the highest taxes.