Friday, September 24, 2010

Durable goods orders tumble more than expected and so, of course, stocks explode

In fairness, much of the drop in durable goods was due to a huge decline in transportation and aircraft and excluding those numbers durable goods did come in a little better than expected.

I think it will be very interesting to watch if the market can hold these gains. If it does, this will be the first major break out above previous resistance levels and all of the computer programmers in CT/NJ will flip their programs to trigger more buying for the foreseeable future.

The real story is what has been going on with the US dollar. The falling US dollar has been driving stocks and physical assets higher (gold is almost $1,300/oz and Silver is at a 30 year high!) and until the trend reverses it's business as usual.

New home sales were dismal, but no one cares today.

The three things that keep me up at night regarding this market - lack of volume, lack of volatility and everyone is bullish. When these things line up it typically isn't a good indicator.

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I haven't voiced my distaste for Apple lately so it seems appropriate to mention a few things now that Apple has become the second most valuable company in the world. It's truly stunning.

Consider that of the 20 most popular apps in the app store designed to increase our efficiency, 17 are video games. The non-video game options - a ringtone designer, a barcode scanner, and Nike+ GPS for runners.

That's it. Look in the productivity store for real business apps? Nope, it's all alarm clocks and emoticon generators.

I understand why Exxon is valuable, I don't get why Apple, Facebook, and Twitter are considered valuable. I'm clearly in the minority, though.

Cheers!

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