Friday, August 05, 2011

Jobs report what would have been a miss becomes a win!!

This is like the old game of "beating your earnings estimates" that companies used to play on Wall Street. If the analysts expected your firm to earn $0.25 in the quarter you would quietly talk the analysts into lowering their estimates to $0.23. Then when you report $0.24 what would have been a miss becomes "exceeded expectations".

Well, so far we just have the headlines but that appears to be what happened with the jobs report. The original estimates were for 122k jobs but that fell to 84k jobs by last night. I think many of the "analysts" failed to realize that the survey dates were July 12th which was well before the Washington drama unfolded so that had little impact on the data.

Now when we report 117k jobs what would have been a miss, EXCEEDS lowered expectations. #Winning!

It's hard to pull data off the bls site because it is being besieged by people trying to access it right now. On the surface, everything looks good - unemployment down, jobs up slightly.

This won't help the argument of the banks that we need more Fed intervention (so in today's perverse markets might be a negative for stocks). Right now stocks are up about 1% on the news.

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