Monday, August 29, 2011

Rally on!!!

To reiterate what I covered on Friday: Ben Bernanke did not outline future easing plans as expected but the market rallied because Goldman (again) said "Well, we think QE3 is still coming". Today we got another raging rally because one failing Greek Bank threw an anchor around the neck of another failing Greek bank. This led to the biggest rally in Greek stocks in 20+ years!!!

All of the news domestically continues to be dismal (Dallas Fed survey was awful) and while the market got excited about retail sales, that data is nearly 2 months old and represents sentiment before the debt debacle in Washington.

An important number that seemed to slip under the radar on Friday was the GDP data. The 4qtr trailing GDP growth rate is now at 1.5%. According to Bloomberg every time this data point has fallen under 2% since 1948 the US has slipped into recession. We'll see if this time it's really different.


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