Wednesday, February 01, 2012

Stop me if you've heard this one before...

For about the 1800th time we have rumor that a deal on Greece is imminent and that rumor is spiking global markets - particularly in Europe which are up 1-2%.  I half believe the theory that the market doesn't want a deal on Greece because it goes up 2% on every rumor and only falls 0.5% when reality hits.  Wash, rinse and repeat and stocks can continue to climb higher without a shred of real news.

Again, this could also be a resurgence of the best trade in 2011 which was to buy on the last day of the month and sell on the first day of the next.  You'd only have been in the market for a handful of days but you would have outperformed by a huge margin in 2011 if you followed that model.  Traders are creatures of habit and if 2/1/11 was a big up day they expect 2/1/12 to be a big up day regardless of what is or isn't happening in the world.

I sense that things are getting increasingly difficult for businesses around the globe but that fact is simply not showing up in the equity markets.  It has a very early 2008 feel - the market is overbought and we're heading into a Presidential election with hopes that we've turned a corner.  Many market indicators would seem to say we have not, but that won't matter today.  All we'll be talking about is Facebook's IPO.


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