Friday, June 01, 2012

Jobs report + 69k

Well, it wasn't a complete disaster but this was a pretty big miss relative to a 150k estimate and my 120k guess.  The number for April was also revised downward substantially.   I'll go through the details but the birth death model which added 204k jobs to the BLS magic block box formula (we don't know how many "jobs" this adds, but it clearly didn't make the number smaller) will draw lots of attention.

However, the key may be this quote from an award winning economist 2 minutes after the release "Terrible numbers, increases the likelihood of QE3" and that will be all the markets hear. 

Right now, European markets are taking it on the chin (down 1.3-2.8%), but give the spinmasters some time and I wouldn't be surprised to hear the "QE3 is coming, QE3 is coming" chant by the end of the day.

Should be a wild day.

1 comment:

Deacon said...

That is disappointing.