Friday, June 01, 2012

Jobs report - preview

We'll hear lots of interesting commentary around the May Jobs report that is due out in the next hour.  The consensus is for around +150k but there are lots of qualifiers.  The warmer winter may have pulled forward some jobs that are not going to show up now and there is a great deal of concern about the impact overseas uncertainty could have on the number.

My best guesstimate is that the number will be slightly below expectations (120k sounds about right) but there is an outside shot at a really poor number.  The markets are clamouring for more central bank intervention and a "slightly weaker" number will not be enough to get the central bankers moving.  If the May jobs number came in at +30k to +50k and the unemployment rate moved up we could see some serious chatter about more easing.

Stay tuned...

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