Thursday, August 08, 2013

Overnight recovery

Things looked a bit sketchy overseas last night as the Japanese markets continued a pretty sharp sell-off but things reversed course on the back of stronger than expected Chinese trade data.  As you are aware, I'm suspect of many data sources and the information coming from China on trade is looking a little strange, but the market took it as gospel so we have to accept that.

Today's market looked to continue the overseas momentum but the combination of light volume, most traders kicking back in the Vineyard, Hampton's or Nantucket meant there has not been a real follow through and I expect the market to flat line for much of today.  I would caution that there are a number of signs that are flashing warning signals but that is a topic which I'll review in another post.

Here's an interesting chart -






















via Capital Spectator

One of the keys to long-term investing success is the understanding that over the long run most returns will revert to the mean. Right now US stocks are far outperforming the rest of the world and other asset classes, but keep an eye on those numbers because eventually they will even out :)

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