Thursday, September 19, 2013

Which camp do you fall in?

Today the markets collectively exhaled post-FOMC announcement and basically tread water all day.  Much of the day was spent with a variety of talking heads making grand pronouncements about what the Fed's decision means.  These theories basically fall within 2 camps:

1) To the moon, Alice, to the moon!  The first camp says that you can't ignore the Fed and all assets are going higher.  This means higher stock prices, higher home prices (if the Fed is successful in lowering rates), higher prices for commodities (oh, yeah gas will probably go up) and probably a lower value for the US dollar.  A subset of this group are those that say just buy the insanely overvalued cult stocks (like Tesla, Priceline, etc) and that worked today, but I wouldn't want to be on that merry-go-round when the music stops.

2) It's game over. The second camp says the Fed has lost credibility after the announcement yesterday.  This camp says that there is no end game and perhaps the Fed is really making it up as they go along.  This definitely became the in vogue position today because everyone wants to be the guy or girl that calls the next big move to the downside. There really is very little to support this theory right now because logic says everything should continue as it has for the past 12 months.  However, when everyone is least expecting it a wild card - Greece (remember them), Syria, Egypt, interest rates moving upward despite the Fed's efforts and a further weakening of the global economy - can derail this plan.

So where do you fall - Camp 1 or Camp 2?

To be continued....

1 comment:

Elizabeth J. Neal said...

Much of the day was spent with a variety of talking heads making grand pronouncements about what the Fed's decision means. These theories basically fall within 2 camps: financial planning firm