Wednesday, March 19, 2014

Imagine if Russia had recreated the Soviet Union?

Stocks would have been up 50%!!  Of course, I kid, but the point is still the same.  On Friday, there was concern that Russia would actually follow through on annexing Crimea.  Stocks had their worst week in over 9 mths.  Then Russia does the unimaginable and crosses one of our many red lines in the sand (or whatever catch phrase the polling data says we should use this week) and stocks of course....... SOAR?

Even the most ardent bulls are starting to question this market where down is up and up is down. The number of people that I speak to who are dumbfounded today is reaching levels last seen in 2008 (and 2000).  Anecdotal evidence is also popping up suggesting people that are on the fringes of the market are starting to ask "What's hot?" and the message boards..... I mean Stocktwits is covered with story stock names that have overpromised and underdelivered for 15-20 years both of which are strong contrary indicators.

I'll say that while we are throwing parties as our stock market soars, take a look at the rest of the world - Russia, China, Japan - which are all down 10-20% in the past 3 months.  Also, note that copper, long regarded as a leading indicator of economic activity is sitting at a 5 year low.

and here are the latest revisions to US GDP via @not_jim_cramer

But as Kevin Bacon says in Animal House, "Remain calm.  All is well!"


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