Wednesday, October 29, 2014

To the moon, Alice. To the moon....

I sort of half joked last week that if we had a few more false Fed rumors stocks could get back to all-time highs.  Little did I know at the time that things would play out that way.

In a Fed news vacuum stocks have continued to levitate like it's 2000 all over again.  For a little perspective, in late Sept-October stocks dipped 8-9% in a matter of days on concerns over the global economy.  Those concerns turned out to be valid when companies started reporting earnings and (with a few exceptions mostly caused by fancy footwork) the results indicated a slowing global economy.

However, a hint of a rumor of someone hearing something somewhere about the Fed sent the computers into overdrive and stocks have now jumped between 6-10% in 2 WEEKS!

As I've tried to explain before the stock market of today bears little resemblance to the stock market of ten years ago.  Prices are just something on a screen to be moved about and they bear little resemblance to what is actually going on at the companies they represent.

I'm currently of the opinion that we are in the midst of a modified version of June 2000.  If you remember back then stocks had taken a beating in March/April only to soar 25% in 5 weeks on little news.  Then, reality set in.

Today things are waffling a bit sort waiting on every word from the Fed.  I'll follow-up later if anything meaningful is said.

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