Tuesday, January 05, 2016

Turning the page on Alcoa?

North Country Public Radio did a piece today covering the dissenting view on NY State's latest efforts to help Alcoa and by default, save the associated jobs in Massena.

You can read the full article here.

I think over the years I've shown that I'm someone who is driven by data.  Here are two facts that relate to my earlier post today that are reflected in the Alcoa story -

1) Alcoa plays in a very large global commodity complex.

2) 6 years with interest rates at or near 0% has led companies to chase yields which often results in industry-wide over expansion.

To that end, note this article from the WSJ on the expansion of supermines and what it means for global commodity prices.

In particular, note this chart via the WSJ.  Look at the explosion of supply in Aluminum (up 38%), the decline in price and then factor in that we may be entering a global economic slowdown.

Then ask yourself - hmm, should NYS really be trying to invest more money in this industry?


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