Wednesday, November 09, 2016

The World Turned Upside Down

I guess now I know why I never went into political prognostication.  I'll leave the political analysis to others because they've done such a great job at it in recent months (sarcasm).

However, regarding the markets, the moves have been very predictable.  At around 8pm last night it was clear that something was going on because the markets were turning red fast.  As the night wore on the losses for the markets continued to mount because Wall Street really was rooting for gridlock.  No movement on trade, healthcare, taxes, social security, etc was a positive in Wall Street's mind, but that all changes with a Trump presidency and a Republican controlled Congress.

However, after plunging to their aftermarket limits in the early going last night (down 5% across the board) a relatively small bid has moved markets back to green at the open.  The model here that everyone is obsessed with is Brexit where a swift sell-off was met with steady buying by the computer algorithms and that seems to be the way things are playing out right now.  However, I'd caution that there are many, many differences.  The most notable of which is that the Brexit will happen in phases over many years.  President Trump takes office in two months.  The market has no clear understanding of what his relationship with Fed Chair Janet Yellen will be like, what industries will be impacted by the potential repeal of Obamacare, how reduced military spending will impact us domestically and abroad, how he would finance the infrastructure spending he plans, etc.

The good news is that we finally have something to debate in the markets again.


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