Thursday, March 26, 2020

Jobless claims at 8:30

I'll jump back on here after 8:30 with the actual breakdown but it's anyone's guess just how bad this number may be.

It really depends on how quickly workers filled out the forms online.  For example, there are almost 15 million Americans that work in leisure and hospitality and that industry has ground to a halt, what percentage of them will file new claims this week.

I've seen estimates of

* 1 million jobs lost (which I think is low considering, Canada lost a million jobs last week with 1/10th our population)

* 2 million

* Even 4 million from Citibank

but without a clear understanding of when people started filing, it's impossible to know.

So, the jobless claims came in just slightly above the consensus estimate of 1.5 million with 3.28 million jobs lost. 

The best headline I saw after the announcement

"Stock futures surge after job losses only hit 3.28 million last week." 

That is not a headline I would have predicted at the start of 2020.


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