Tuesday, April 14, 2020

Young people speaking their minds...

Getting so much resistance from behind
It’s time we stop, hey, what’s that sound
Everybody look what’s going down”

Buffalo Springfield - "For What It's Worth"
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Thanks for indulging my love for great musical lyrics with a strong message.  This one is a little older, but go back and give it a listen if you haven't heard it recently :)
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Missoula Connects – Ongoing Updates – Businesses that are Open to ...

Remember, when I mentioned on Sunday night that this was coming? The "Look, it never was that bad. Go have some pancakes at the Cracker Barrel!" message?

I'll avoid the politics of someone having a meltdown yesterday on live TV but this is the challenge that we face as the country attempts to re-open.  Right now we are a tale of 3 countries:

* The West Coast who acted swiftly to close cities and where the rates of hospitalization are manageable.

* The Northeast - grandstanding Governors are basking in near universal praise while their citizens die in staggering numbers - one out of every 12 people who has died from COVID19 lives in NYS but our Governor is polling higher than ever.

* The South - this will be the next ground zero because this disease disproportionately targets older people with diabetes and weight issues.  Combined with the fact that Southern states were 10-14 days behind the rest of the country in responding means that their peak is still weeks away.

Given this vastly disparate response in our nation keep these stats in mind:

* Roughly 50% w no symptoms (perhaps as high as 80%)
* 5 day dormancy makes contact tracing nearly impossible in a free society
* the virus lingers on surfaces including things shipped
* there is a 2 week delay in hospitalizations vs. infections.

The decision to re-open America has to be driven by considering the science, the state of our healthcare system and to a lesser, extent the economy.  All of the Governors who spoke on this matter seem to agree that the health of their citizens needs to drive this debate.  However, Washington has appointed a grim reapers panel of unqualified corporate donors and yes men.  That "panel" will cause more chaos than it will address.

And when the economy does reopen what will it look like? What companies are going to ask workers to return to a corporate office? There is talk that things like voluntary self-gatherings (think NFL games or concerts/festivals) might not return until the FALL of 2021.  People who think the country will go from 0 to 100 overnight based on some order from Washington are either wildly ignorant or engaging in day drinking (or both).
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Sad stat of the day:

via @NorthmanTrader
Coronavirus deaths, worldwide.

12th of February: 1,261
12th of March: 4,981
14th of April: 120,000

Roughly 1 in 5 of the global death total is in the United States. 
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Deutsche Bank finally got around to doing the math that I did for you last week.  This quote is staggering but is reflective of something I've been trying to get across to people for the past decade - our economy was fueled by too many companies living in a debt bubble.  Unfortunately our solution for too much debt is........more debt.

"DEUTSCHE: “Since the 2008-2009 recession ended, the US economy created 22 million jobs, and including our forecast for this week’s jobless claims shows that the US economy over the past four weeks lost 25 million jobs ... A decade of job gains undone in just four weeks.
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The stock market continued it's daily swings from based on COVID news - down sharply in the morning only to bounce at the end of the day because of hopium provided by the White House.  Today, stocks are up again in the pre-market (but weakening a bit) as people chase the narrow band of tech stocks (Amazon keeps soaring).

The tech heavy NASDAQ is actually up about 4% from the point where it was 6 months ago.  Think about that in light of what's happened in the global economy over the past 2 months.  It's a stark reminder that the stock market is not the economy, the stock market is a high stakes, computerized video game with almost no correlation to the underlying economy.
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Daily Dose of Humor:

via @DrakeGatsby
"If you eat raw pizza dough, a block of cheese, and drink some boiling hot marinara sauce, you can make a lil’ pizza in your tummy"

via @bartandsoul
"Expectation: Today, I will be my best self
Reality: Eats for 14 hours straight"

via @junejuly12
"Quarantine Morning in Review

8:30: opens fridge
9:30: opens fridge
10:15: opens fridge
11:00: opens fridge
11:01: leaves fridge open"

Cheers!

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