So, after spending the better part of the past 10 months sitting in a mall I think I can make the following observation: people like to shop. I don't. It's not my thing and I'll never understand the joy of strolling through Sears for 45 minutes. However, I'm clearly in the minority.
So, I'm toying with a new idea and I'm going to need some test users to validate the concept.
Here's where you come in -- if you are a frequent shopper (like 1-2 trips to retailers/week) and have a camera phone you can be one of the first 25 participants.
Email me - Brian@nnymath.com for further instructions. Once I have 15-25 users, I'll let everyone else in on the big reveal.
Monday, June 17, 2013
Wednesday, June 12, 2013
A little consumer protection post
A collection of stories recently popped up that highlight the lengths to which some will go to separate people from their money. In particular, two of these stories highlight the cost of being poor and outside of the traditional banking sector. We've long been aware of the cost to the poor that frequent check cashing stores (ie, payday loans) and pawnshops, but the emerging area of "Rent-to-own" keeps expanding as opportunities arise.
1) When I first read this story, I assumed it had to be fake. There's no way people are actually going to "rent-to-own" stores for TIRES, right? However, after a little research it seems that companies like Rimco, Rent-a-Wheel, and Rent and Roll, are indeed a real business. The examples used in this article are gut wrenching for me to read because it's a clear example of a business taking advantage of their customers' weak math skills.
"When the tires on their Dodge Caravan had worn so thin that the steel belts were showing through, Don and Florence Cherry couldn't afford to buy a new set.
1) When I first read this story, I assumed it had to be fake. There's no way people are actually going to "rent-to-own" stores for TIRES, right? However, after a little research it seems that companies like Rimco, Rent-a-Wheel, and Rent and Roll, are indeed a real business. The examples used in this article are gut wrenching for me to read because it's a clear example of a business taking advantage of their customers' weak math skills.
"When the tires on their Dodge Caravan had worn so thin that the steel belts were showing through, Don and Florence Cherry couldn't afford to buy a new set.
So they decided to rent instead.
The Rich Square, N.C., couple last September agreed to pay Rent-N-Roll $54.60 a month for 18 months in exchange for four basic Hankook tires. Over the life of the deal, that works out to $982, almost triple what the radials would have cost at Wal-Mart."
"The tires on their Chevy Silverado were in terrible shape, too dangerous to be used for the long drive to his new job as an industrial painter. But they were such an odd size that the cheapest replacement set cost $1,340 at a regular tire store, far beyond Collins' budget.
The Rimco salesman said he'd get her rental tires for the same price and almost no money down — so long as she paid them off within 120 days. What Collins didn't realize was that the cost would skyrocket if she missed the "same-as-cash" deadline.
She found out the hard way.
This spring, Collins, who owns a used-book store, made her 18th and final monthly payment of $164.10, bringing the total price for the tires to nearly $3,000. That works out to the equivalent of more than 120% annual interest, quadruple the highest credit card rates."
I actually hesitated linking to this article because my fear is that someone will see this and say "Hey, you know what the North Country needs? Rent-to-Own tires where I can charge 120% interest!!"
2) Another company that makes my skin crawl is Coinstar - the provider of the ubiquitous green coin sorting machines spread around retailers everywhere. They will kindly count your coins in exchange for 10% of your money!!! So, turn in $50 of coins and they keep $5. Some people would be say "Hey, $5 to not have to roll 200 quarters? That's worth it." However, that's exactly the mentality that Coinstar is looking to take advantage of.
Well, now Coinstar has come up with a new way to get their 10% and keep you spending. Rather than just getting 90% of you cash back, they'll now let you fund your Paypal account so you can keep online shopping without missing a beat. As Susan Waldman would say "Goodness gracious!!".
Maybe one day we'll be lucky enough to have a TD Bank open up in our area where coin sorting is offered for FREE.
3) This story may have made the local news, but if it hasn't you need to see this list. A Tampa newspaper did a nice piece of research breaking down how much money various charities spend trying to raise MORE money. The results are discouraging. You'll notice that many of the worst offenders sound like real charities - for example, the Kids Wish Network sounds like some sort of mash up of Children's Miracle Network and Make a Wish Foundation. If a newspaper can make this determination by looking at tax filings it seems like IRS could as well. I'd love to see a bill reach the floor of Congress that said "if you spend less than 50% of your donations on direct aid for 2 consecutive years, you lose your tax-exempt status." However, I'm sure there are lobbyists from somewhere in North Dakota where the soliciting telemarketers live, that would argue that this would be a job-killer. Sigh. Politics.
PS - Thanks for hanging in there during some lean posting over the past few months. I promise to pick up the pace :)
PS - Thanks for hanging in there during some lean posting over the past few months. I promise to pick up the pace :)
Monday, June 10, 2013
Can a video be a metaphor?
If so, I wonder what this knucklehead in his BMW represents....
It's about a 1 minute video, but it's worth the wait...
It's about a 1 minute video, but it's worth the wait...
Thursday, June 06, 2013
Blinding me with science
Just a quick note on the market "comeback" today. Someone or more likely some group of high frequency traders were crushing the market at the end of the day with over a billion... yes, with a "b", quotes in S&P options which is incredibly rare. This sort of action seemed design to accomplish only one thing and that is to move stock prices higher. None of the other traditional risk assets participated in the late day surge which will make tomorrow (a jobs report day) very interesting.
*****************************************************
Large investors pushing home prices: Hmm, this probably will end well, right? Large financial firms making big bets nothing could go wrong.
"Large investment firms have spent billions of dollars over the last year buying homes in some of the nation’s most depressed markets. The influx has been so great, and the resulting price gains so big, that ordinary buyers are feeling squeezed out. Some are already wondering if prices will slump anew if the big money stops flowing."
"Blackstone, which helped define a period of Wall Street hyperwealth, has bought some 26,000 homes in nine states. Colony Capital, a Los Angeles-based investment firm, is spending $250 million each month and already owns 10,000 properties. With little fanfare, these and other financial companies have become significant landlords on Main Street. Most of the firms are renting out the homes, with the possibility of unloading them at a profit when prices rise far enough."
***************************************************************************
Here comes the science -
Someone has come up with a device that allows people to generate and store power via a "soccket" ball. Very clever for those that live in areas without reliable power sources.
" In June a group of 20-somethings will kick off a soccer-related project with a global purpose that goes beyond athletic competition.
*****************************************************
Large investors pushing home prices: Hmm, this probably will end well, right? Large financial firms making big bets nothing could go wrong.
"Large investment firms have spent billions of dollars over the last year buying homes in some of the nation’s most depressed markets. The influx has been so great, and the resulting price gains so big, that ordinary buyers are feeling squeezed out. Some are already wondering if prices will slump anew if the big money stops flowing."
"Blackstone, which helped define a period of Wall Street hyperwealth, has bought some 26,000 homes in nine states. Colony Capital, a Los Angeles-based investment firm, is spending $250 million each month and already owns 10,000 properties. With little fanfare, these and other financial companies have become significant landlords on Main Street. Most of the firms are renting out the homes, with the possibility of unloading them at a profit when prices rise far enough."
***************************************************************************
Here comes the science -
Someone has come up with a device that allows people to generate and store power via a "soccket" ball. Very clever for those that live in areas without reliable power sources.
" In June a group of 20-somethings will kick off a soccer-related project with a global purpose that goes beyond athletic competition.
They will start full-scale manufacture of soccer-style balls that generate and store electric power when kicked around.
After playtime with these "Soccket" balls, families and communities that lack reliable access to electricity can use the balls' power for lighting and – eventually – other electrical applications.
Surveys suggest that more than 1.3 billion people worldwide live without a consistent source of electricity.
That lifestyle can cost money. "Some Mexican families spend up to a quarter of their income on candles and other light sources during months-long power outages," said Victor Angel, product manager of Uncharted Play, Inc., the company that developed the Soccket.
It looks like an ordinary soccer ball on the outside, but the Soccket actually contains a small direct current generator and a storage unit.
"As the ball rolls, the mechanism spins a generator to produce electricity that goes through our custom port and is stored in a lithium ion battery like those in laptops," Angel explained."
************************************************************************
In case you have some liquid oxygen laying around the house - DO NOT TRY THIS AT HOME - Enjoy the video from the comfort of your own home.
Cheers!
Wednesday, June 05, 2013
Graduation season
There are a ton of reflective pieces offering advice to graduates at this time of the year. However, a recent article in the NYTimes where the author implied that employers are no longer impressed by a fancy diploma from schools like Yale really got people up in arms (particularly those that have just finished paying about $50k/year to attend Yale).
"Since jobs are evolving so quickly, with so many new tools, a bachelor’s degree is no longer considered an adequate proxy by employers for your ability to do a particular job — and, therefore, be hired. So, more employers are designing their own tests to measure applicants’ skills. And they increasingly don’t care how those skills were acquired: home schooling, an online university, a massive open online course, or Yale. They just want to know one thing: Can you add value?"
This really struck home with me because it was the exact conversation that I'd had with my kids just a couple of weeks ago. I reminded them that old-timers like me grew up in an era where you got good grades, went to a good school and hopefully landed a great job. That era seems to be nearly over and schools, guidance counselors, parent and students need to recognize this shift. Employers want people that can get the job done and they don't really care how you were trained to get the job done.
I'm not saying everyone should abandon the traditional college model, but I am saying that students should do an honest cost/benefit analysis of a higher education degree.
In a related note, I really like this list of the keys to modern success which I've modified a bit via David Kerpen...
1) Be passionate. The idea of taking a vacation or a sick day from your job should seem like a foreign concept. You should be itching to get out of bed and get to work everyday. I was passionate about stocks, I started writing a newsletter. That caught someones eye and away I went. I still can't go to sleep without checking the Asian markets and European Futures. My current passion is sharing a love of math and science with kids in the North Country -- unfortunately, not everyone seems to share my passion :)
2) Learn to use a phone to talk. I'm constantly amazed by the lack of conversational skills most kids possess. It's not bad among young kids but by the time kids hit the "texting years" their ability to answer a phone with a smile is lost. Be great on the phone and people will notice.
3) Be afraid, but take risks anyway. This is a hard one for a parent to relay to a child b/c we are constantly telling them what not to do in order to stay safe. However, I always say there are acceptable risks - jumping off a 5 foot slide is acceptable, while jumping off a 35 foot cliff would not.
Start a business and if it fails you've learned from that experience about sales and taxes and customer relations. Stand up for something you believe in and actually start forming your own set of beliefs instead of parroting your parents and friends. These are scary propositions but they will make you a better person.
4) Take care of yourself. As the original author stated I too put on weight in college that I've battled my entire adult life. Yes, you may get struck by a bus or get some horrible disease but if you can increase your odds by exercising and eating better shouldn't you?
5) Be a great listener. I've had to work hard at this because of a past career. In one of my old jobs we met with 500-600 startups a year which meant 2-5 meetings per day with new people. The reality was that within 5 minutes I knew whether or not I was ever going to speak to the people presenting again. If it was a a NO then I usually tuned them out to work on a project in my head. This was a bad habit that I carried with me for many years. I believe I'm a better listener today but I'm still not perfect.
Okay, I'll shut up now.
PS - If anyone is interested, I am planning on running summer science camps at NNY Math in the Mall this July. You can CALL me at 315 212-5577 or email brian@nnymath.com.
"Since jobs are evolving so quickly, with so many new tools, a bachelor’s degree is no longer considered an adequate proxy by employers for your ability to do a particular job — and, therefore, be hired. So, more employers are designing their own tests to measure applicants’ skills. And they increasingly don’t care how those skills were acquired: home schooling, an online university, a massive open online course, or Yale. They just want to know one thing: Can you add value?"
This really struck home with me because it was the exact conversation that I'd had with my kids just a couple of weeks ago. I reminded them that old-timers like me grew up in an era where you got good grades, went to a good school and hopefully landed a great job. That era seems to be nearly over and schools, guidance counselors, parent and students need to recognize this shift. Employers want people that can get the job done and they don't really care how you were trained to get the job done.
I'm not saying everyone should abandon the traditional college model, but I am saying that students should do an honest cost/benefit analysis of a higher education degree.
In a related note, I really like this list of the keys to modern success which I've modified a bit via David Kerpen...
1) Be passionate. The idea of taking a vacation or a sick day from your job should seem like a foreign concept. You should be itching to get out of bed and get to work everyday. I was passionate about stocks, I started writing a newsletter. That caught someones eye and away I went. I still can't go to sleep without checking the Asian markets and European Futures. My current passion is sharing a love of math and science with kids in the North Country -- unfortunately, not everyone seems to share my passion :)
2) Learn to use a phone to talk. I'm constantly amazed by the lack of conversational skills most kids possess. It's not bad among young kids but by the time kids hit the "texting years" their ability to answer a phone with a smile is lost. Be great on the phone and people will notice.
3) Be afraid, but take risks anyway. This is a hard one for a parent to relay to a child b/c we are constantly telling them what not to do in order to stay safe. However, I always say there are acceptable risks - jumping off a 5 foot slide is acceptable, while jumping off a 35 foot cliff would not.
Start a business and if it fails you've learned from that experience about sales and taxes and customer relations. Stand up for something you believe in and actually start forming your own set of beliefs instead of parroting your parents and friends. These are scary propositions but they will make you a better person.
4) Take care of yourself. As the original author stated I too put on weight in college that I've battled my entire adult life. Yes, you may get struck by a bus or get some horrible disease but if you can increase your odds by exercising and eating better shouldn't you?
5) Be a great listener. I've had to work hard at this because of a past career. In one of my old jobs we met with 500-600 startups a year which meant 2-5 meetings per day with new people. The reality was that within 5 minutes I knew whether or not I was ever going to speak to the people presenting again. If it was a a NO then I usually tuned them out to work on a project in my head. This was a bad habit that I carried with me for many years. I believe I'm a better listener today but I'm still not perfect.
Okay, I'll shut up now.
PS - If anyone is interested, I am planning on running summer science camps at NNY Math in the Mall this July. You can CALL me at 315 212-5577 or email brian@nnymath.com.
Tuesday, June 04, 2013
Finally a rocky Tuesday.
I've been saving up a bunch some stories that generally make me shake my head. First, a little market wrap-up.
Today was the first Tuesday in the last 21 where the market didn't go up. That is the longest stretch ever and had gone from kind of goofy joke, "hey, look the market was up again, it must be Tuesday" to an actual trading strategy that some were following - buy on Monday, sell on Tuesday. This makes absolutely no sense - why would the day of the week determine the value of a company or the market in general? - but in today's market we have to learn to ignore the old way of thinking in favor of trend chasing.
Right now the story of the day will be "Concerns about the Fed hurt stocks" or "Strong housing market fuels stocks" but the reality is far simpler. Watch the US dollar vs. the Japanese Yen. When the yen appreciates, stocks fall. When the yen slips, stocks rise. I wish it was more complicated but it's not.
Anyway, I promised some interesting stories so here you go -
1) Okay, you live 2,950 feet above sea level. Logically, you must have home owner's insurance coverage for.... Tsunamis??? That was the surprise this gentleman in Australia got when he was looking for some new home insurance. The company providing the quote tacked on a $300 Tsunami rider for the risk of some giant 3,000 foot wave crashing into Australia.
2) United airlines to institute a baggage "subscription fee" option. For a mere $349 (plus a host of other fees and conditions) you can now once again fly with the joy of knowing your bags may or many not arrived on time. Since United started charging for the first checked bag ($25) this seems like the logical "Netflix" version of their baggage model. At some point someone (Elon Musk?) will upset the apple cart in the airline industry.
It's late so I'll follow-up with some other thoughts tomorrow.
Cheers!
Today was the first Tuesday in the last 21 where the market didn't go up. That is the longest stretch ever and had gone from kind of goofy joke, "hey, look the market was up again, it must be Tuesday" to an actual trading strategy that some were following - buy on Monday, sell on Tuesday. This makes absolutely no sense - why would the day of the week determine the value of a company or the market in general? - but in today's market we have to learn to ignore the old way of thinking in favor of trend chasing.
Right now the story of the day will be "Concerns about the Fed hurt stocks" or "Strong housing market fuels stocks" but the reality is far simpler. Watch the US dollar vs. the Japanese Yen. When the yen appreciates, stocks fall. When the yen slips, stocks rise. I wish it was more complicated but it's not.
Anyway, I promised some interesting stories so here you go -
1) Okay, you live 2,950 feet above sea level. Logically, you must have home owner's insurance coverage for.... Tsunamis??? That was the surprise this gentleman in Australia got when he was looking for some new home insurance. The company providing the quote tacked on a $300 Tsunami rider for the risk of some giant 3,000 foot wave crashing into Australia.
2) United airlines to institute a baggage "subscription fee" option. For a mere $349 (plus a host of other fees and conditions) you can now once again fly with the joy of knowing your bags may or many not arrived on time. Since United started charging for the first checked bag ($25) this seems like the logical "Netflix" version of their baggage model. At some point someone (Elon Musk?) will upset the apple cart in the airline industry.
It's late so I'll follow-up with some other thoughts tomorrow.
Cheers!
Monday, May 27, 2013
How one accident equals $2.2 trillion
I somehow became the target of a twitter rant from a well respected analyst/hedge fund mgr over the weekend when I dared to question the stories that seemed to flow to quickly following the failure of the I-5 bridge in Washington. This guy is one of my favorites so it was a really weird exchange.
Yes, this was a scary accident and it would have been terrifying to have been on that span when it down. However, it was essentially a 2 car accident. Yet somehow every major network led with it as their top story for the next two nights. They all had infrastructure experts lined up for miles to comment on how terrible US infrastructure is and how we need to institute a national spending spree of about $2.2 trillion to fix this problem.
However, after a couple of days the facts started to interfere with this story. It appears that a truck carrying drilling equipment travelling at highway speed struck the bridge and took out several key supports leading to its collapse. A leading transportation inspector said something to the effect of "well, if this truck had hit a new bridge at that speed, the result would have been the same." Again, this doesn't fit with the "spend, baby, spend" mantra so we have to ignore the facts.
Look, I'm not opposed to upgrading our infrastructure when the payback is real and the budgets are clear. The two things we can't do well as a nation is see our toes or build large projects. In NYC we've finally capped the new WTC 12 yrs after 9/11 (and we're still 2-3 yrs from being finished). In the interim China has built 10-15 CITIES. As far as budgeting, note that Boston's Big Dig was estimated to cost $2.6 billion but when the final tab arrived it was almost $15 billion. Locally, consider the $106 million investment in a new Ft. Drum connector route covering 8.4 miles (is it paved in gold?).
Is it embarrassing to fly back into JFK from just about any major airport in the world? Sure. Would I like Rt 95 through Connecticut to be more like a highway and less like a minefield? Sure. I just want to have an honest conversation about our infrastructure not a panic induced spending spree.
1) Our bridges aren't falling apart. Many of them are hit (like the I-5 bridge) every day and the vast majority do not collapse. In the UK it is estimated that 7 bridges are struck every day. In a country, the size of the US I'd expect that we have 5-10 times that number every day. Rarely do people end up in the drink.
2) A $ spent here does not return the same amount as a $ spent in India or China because our costs are so much higher and the incremental change isn't as great. If you add 1,000 miles of 6 lane highway in India you are replacing 1 pothole filled road where the average speed was 20 mph. If you add 1,000 miles of 6 lane highway in the US you are probably just replacing a 4 lane highway where the average speed was 68mph.
3) Let's invest with an eye to 2100 - Fiber, wireless, etc. Roads, bridges, rail? Nice but it feels a bit like building the Rideau Canal when the railroads were coming.
So, I took it on the chin this weekend from an angry hedge fund manager(who is probably long Caterpillar) with 40,000 twitter followers because I dared to question the "America is falling apart:" theme. Point taken - next time I'll ask about your positions first :)
Yes, this was a scary accident and it would have been terrifying to have been on that span when it down. However, it was essentially a 2 car accident. Yet somehow every major network led with it as their top story for the next two nights. They all had infrastructure experts lined up for miles to comment on how terrible US infrastructure is and how we need to institute a national spending spree of about $2.2 trillion to fix this problem.
However, after a couple of days the facts started to interfere with this story. It appears that a truck carrying drilling equipment travelling at highway speed struck the bridge and took out several key supports leading to its collapse. A leading transportation inspector said something to the effect of "well, if this truck had hit a new bridge at that speed, the result would have been the same." Again, this doesn't fit with the "spend, baby, spend" mantra so we have to ignore the facts.
Look, I'm not opposed to upgrading our infrastructure when the payback is real and the budgets are clear. The two things we can't do well as a nation is see our toes or build large projects. In NYC we've finally capped the new WTC 12 yrs after 9/11 (and we're still 2-3 yrs from being finished). In the interim China has built 10-15 CITIES. As far as budgeting, note that Boston's Big Dig was estimated to cost $2.6 billion but when the final tab arrived it was almost $15 billion. Locally, consider the $106 million investment in a new Ft. Drum connector route covering 8.4 miles (is it paved in gold?).
Is it embarrassing to fly back into JFK from just about any major airport in the world? Sure. Would I like Rt 95 through Connecticut to be more like a highway and less like a minefield? Sure. I just want to have an honest conversation about our infrastructure not a panic induced spending spree.
1) Our bridges aren't falling apart. Many of them are hit (like the I-5 bridge) every day and the vast majority do not collapse. In the UK it is estimated that 7 bridges are struck every day. In a country, the size of the US I'd expect that we have 5-10 times that number every day. Rarely do people end up in the drink.
2) A $ spent here does not return the same amount as a $ spent in India or China because our costs are so much higher and the incremental change isn't as great. If you add 1,000 miles of 6 lane highway in India you are replacing 1 pothole filled road where the average speed was 20 mph. If you add 1,000 miles of 6 lane highway in the US you are probably just replacing a 4 lane highway where the average speed was 68mph.
3) Let's invest with an eye to 2100 - Fiber, wireless, etc. Roads, bridges, rail? Nice but it feels a bit like building the Rideau Canal when the railroads were coming.
So, I took it on the chin this weekend from an angry hedge fund manager(who is probably long Caterpillar) with 40,000 twitter followers because I dared to question the "America is falling apart:" theme. Point taken - next time I'll ask about your positions first :)
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